Crisis: what will happen next?
Already in early 2006 the experts of LEAP 2020, a European think tank studying global economics and politics, warned about the current crisis. In February this year they predicted the crisis would explode and be visible for everyone by September. They had it right.
So it’s interesting to see what they think how this crisis will continue. In their latest bulletin they say there will be more and more a divide between the US and the rest of the world, particularly the Eurozone. To put it simply, measures to curb the crisis that are good for the US are bad for everyone else and vice versa. They say the dollar is only gaining recently because the stock markets continue to decline, for 2009 things look not so good for the US currency.
The euro will gain more ground, as it will be more and more a “safe haven” and an alternative for the US dollar. Because the public debt of the US is exploding right now, it is possible that the US already by the summer of 2009 will default on its debt. There will be already strong inflation, but if this happens, it will spiral out of control. Then we’ll see hyper-inflation that can kill the US dollar, probably dragging the Canadian dollar and the Mexican peso down with it. At the same time, the price of oil will go through the roof, unless countries decide to switch to the euro to trade oil. Meanwhile, the real economy will continue to collapse in the US.
According to LEAP 2020, we are entering now a new phase in the crisis. New global equilibriums will start to appear, as today’s world power, the US, implodes. They warn that the smaller powers in the world, like Europe, Russia, China and Japan have to make sure the US reaction to the crisis will not drive the planet into a disaster.
Difficult and dangerous times are ahead, according to LEAP 2020. Let’s hope they have it wrong this time…
[...] Source ; Sjeltur.nl [...]
Hi, here are your post:)
http://goldenfibonacci.com/?p=439
THX sjeltur, we like your writing a lot
It could be that I’m biased because I’m in the US – but where is this organization based? You say it foresaw this crisis in ‘06…well in the US there has been a book out for at least 7 years (2001) by the Rich Dad, Poor Dad company – you know – Robert Kiyosaki — and their prediction isn’t ‘total destruction brought on by the US’ instead it’s seen as a time as restructuring for the country to bring itself up to yet another level of power and global leadership.
The american culture has spread to even small towns of mongolia — The US is not weak. It’s in flux as is the world.
This article seemed a bit fear mongering for me but thanks anyway.
I always wondered where are we heading to and it seems were are heading to nowhere! The current crisis should be a red alarm or else we are getting in serious troubles!
Joey, let’s hope it turns out not that bad. But all economic indicators show a different story.