Sjeltur

Last week US, British and French naval forces participated in war games in the Atlantic Ocean, reportedly to practice the enforcement of an eventual blockade on Iran. After these exercises, a strong military build up in the Persian Gulf has begun.

Most important vessel directed to the Gulf is the USS Theodore Roosevelt and its Carrier Strike Group 2. Besides the more than 80 combat aircraft it normally transports, it’s also carrying French fighter jets from the French carrier Charles de Gaulle, currently in dry dock. Other vessels on its way to the Gulf are the USS Ronald Reagan and Carrier Strike Group 7, the USS Iwo Jima, British Royal Navy carrier HMS Ark Royal, and a number of French warships. Two US naval battle groups are already present in the Gulf, the USS Abraham Lincoln and the USS Peleliu.

The Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz viewed from space. The narrow, strategically waterway is at its narrowest only 21 miles / 34 kilometres wide. About a third of all oil consumed in the world passes through the strait. 

Many observers expect the US and its allies to start a blockade on Iran, if the current negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program fail. By blocking everything that goes in and out of Iran, the US and its allies hope the Islamic Republic will be forced to accept the demands of the US and its allies.

It sounds counterintuitive, but Iran will suffer the most if the import of oil is made impossible. Iran is a major producer and exporter of crude oil, but it lacks refining capacity and has to re-import its own oil once refined abroad.

We have no idea where this is heading. Will Iran give in or fight back? What will countries like Russia and China do if the blockade disrupts the oil market entirely, drives prices through to roof, and their economies come to a grinding halt due to a shortage of oil? If it really comes to a military confrontation, there are no guarantees the conflict will be contained and not escalate, with other players involved. If it escalates, the conflict has the potential to become the biggest crisis the world has seen since the Cuban missile crisis of 1962.